Odds are, Ford CEO Jim Farley and Common Motors CEO Mary Barra have both already voted within the election or will on Tuesday. Fortunately, although, we’ve got completely no concept who which candidate they really help. Your guess is about nearly as good as mine. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, however, has made it abundantly clear that he’s all-in for Trump. And he doesn’t simply need Trump to win — he’s spending thousands and thousands and actively campaigning on his behalf. If Trump wins, Musk and his corporations will completely profit, however what occurs if the convicted felon loses?
It actually isn’t unlawful or unprecedented for a billionaire CEO to make use of their cash and affect in an try to sway the election in favor of their most popular candidate, and but, Musk should still discover himself in authorized bother over his political motion committee’s doable violation of human trafficking legal guidelines, the doable mendacity on his immigration paperwork and his buddy-buddy relationship with enemy dictator Vladimir Putin. That’s not even the entire checklist, only a handful of probably the most quick points that deserve investigating.
Nonetheless, we don’t know the way aggressively the Harris administration would go after Musk, particularly within the months instantly following her inauguration. In any case, there’s an opportunity that post-election and post-inauguration right-wing violence will trigger greater than its justifiable share of distractions. They’re already burning poll containers, so there’s no motive to consider they’ll take a Trump loss peacefully. No matter what any investigation concludes, although, the wheels of justice flip slowly, and he in all probability received’t face any precise penalties for some time, if he ever does.
You can also’t overlook about that complete two-tiered justice system we’ve got that appears particularly geared towards preserving the wealthy out of jail. If his cozy little nighttime chats with Putin weren’t sufficient to forestall the Pentagon from utilizing SpaceX to launch a community of spy satellites, it’s laborious to have a lot religion that the Harris administration received’t proceed her predecessor’s coverage of merely letting him get away with all the things.
Whether or not it’s for present or one thing he truly believes, Musk’s conduct on Twitter currently actually suggests he isn’t assured his standing because the richest particular person on the planet will hold him secure. Along with all his different rubbish tweets, Musk can be spreading the concept that Democrats plan to destroy him, and in his interview with TV dinner belief fund child Tucker Carlson, mentioned he’s fucked if Trump loses. Why he’s threatening me with time, I don’t know, however it in all probability has one thing to do with all of the ketamine.
If Musk does go down, although, that will doubtless be unhealthy information for each firm he runs however particularly Tesla because it’s publicly traded. Its worth has been fully divorced from its merchandise and income for years now, and with Musk not on the helm, it’s laborious to think about traders wouldn’t flee. Tesla is Elon, and Elon is Tesla, in spite of everything.
What’s far more attention-grabbing to contemplate is what’s going to occur to Tesla if we assume the established order is generally right here to remain. In a state of affairs the place Trump loses, and Musk tries to return to being his pre-Twitter-takeover self, it’s nonetheless simple to see quite a lot of potential clients deciding they don’t wish to give their cash to somebody so unapologetically right-wing. I imply, he’s already telling individuals he plans to crash the financial system when he guts the federal authorities like a non-public fairness CEO who simply acquired a media firm from Univision. Common individuals don’t have a tendency to love guys like that.
For just about some other electrical automaker, a Harris win can be excellent news. She is going to doubtless proceed to supply tax credit for EV purchases and needs to develop the EV business within the U.S. She’ll put money into clear vitality and can presumably proceed the carbon credit score program that advantages electrical automakers, together with Tesla. The bar isn’t excessive, however you may count on Harris to be probably the most pro-EV president in historical past. On paper, Tesla’s CEO must be all about that, particularly with its U.S. factories giving it a bonus over automakers that construct their EVs abroad.
The draw back for Tesla is that Harris’s insurance policies will assist the EV business as an entire, not Tesla particularly. If different automakers’ EV gross sales enhance, that’s solely going to harm Tesla’s market share and can doubtless impression its gross sales, as nicely. What Tesla does have is its Supercharger community, which might nonetheless be a helpful asset that generates income even when each Tesla manufacturing unit magically disappeared in a single day.
By the top of the second Harris administration, different networks might have caught up, however no less than within the close to future, you may’t overlook how vital the Supercharger community is as the corporate faces an uphill battle towards competitors that solely will get each time a brand new EV goes on sale. The truth that Tesla’s lineup is both historical or the Cybertruck actually doesn’t assist issues, both.
After all, Musk defenders will let you know automobile gross sales don’t matter as a result of Tesla is now an AI/robotics firm, however it’s additionally simple to see traders getting spooked and making an attempt to place their cash someplace safer than Tesla as they modify their technique primarily based on the path they consider Harris will take the nation. It’s additionally no secret that Tesla is a meme inventory and has been for a very long time. There could also be a couple of credulous rubes who stick round and actually consider Tesla is about to “resolve autonomy,” however come late January, what number of of these will nonetheless be round?
If traders get spooked, issues might in a short time go from unhealthy to worse for Musk and Tesla. SpaceX is effective by way of authorities contracts, however it isn’t a publicly traded firm he can use to fund his way of life. He wants Tesla to stay overvalued to maintain this complete factor going, and some massive traders exiting might be the falling domino that ultimately brings all of it down. If the inventory worth relies on vibes anyway, unhealthy vibes might simply snowball right into a state of affairs the place everybody’s determined to leap ship earlier than the worth falls even additional.
It’s additionally not like the rich don’t have legitimate causes to be fearful about an incoming Harris administration. She plans to boost taxes on the wealthy, regulate companies and proceed Biden’s coverage of going after rich tax cheats. (And miss me with that, “Woe is me, I can barely get by on $400,000 in San Francisco,” bullshit. Discover ways to price range like the remainder of us, Richy Wealthy.) The nation and the individuals will likely be higher off below the Harris administration, however even earlier than she has the prospect to do any of that, it wouldn’t be shocking to see millionaires and billionaires act just like the sky is falling as a result of they may not be capable to afford to outfit a brand new personal jet or bust unions and abuse employees with out penalties.
In consequence, it’s simple to think about a situation the place traders wish to distance themselves from Musk and put their cash into safer investments which might be much less prone to be topic to elevated regulation. And but, when you get to that time, it actually turns into laborious to guess what occurs subsequent. Possibly it’s doable that the board kicks Elon to the curb, goes again to being an everyday electrical automaker and provides up on pretending humanoid robots will truly be helpful. Given the make-up of the present board, although, that appears about as doubtless as Musk getting precise jail time.
So what do you suppose? Will the inventory crash? Will or not it’s extra of a gradual burn? Will something occur to Musk? Does one other automaker swoop in and purchase Tesla? Will the corporate nonetheless exist in 4 years? Will Musk resolve autonomy and switch his robotaxis right into a multi-trillion-dollar goldmine? Just about any reply is simply as legitimate as some other as a result of there’s no technique to predict the longer term. At this level, whether or not Harris or Trump wins might as nicely be a coin-flip, so for those who haven’t voted already, make double rattling certain you do this. The very last thing this nation wants is Elon ready of energy in a second Trump administration.
