In Abu Dhabi, a problem harking back to previous occasions takes place, with two of essentially the most profitable groups in Components 1 as soon as once more battling for the world title. McLaren begins with the calm of a crew managing a 21-point lead, whereas Ferrari is compelled to attain a double podium, hoping that the rivals from Woking don’t get too shut. The Scuderia finds motivation within the warmth and the tires, but additionally clings to assist from Max Verstappen.
“On paper, we’re in all probability in a greater place for numerous components, together with temperatures and the structure of the observe,” says Frederic Vasseur, simply days earlier than the decisive race. Abu Dhabi presents itself as a extra ‘impartial’ circuit in comparison with the final two, with Las Vegas suiting Ferrari’s traits extra, whereas Qatar performed to McLaren’s strengths. The Yas Marina circuit options some gradual, 90-degree corners, comparable to corners 12, 16, or the 6-7 chicane, that are favored by a Ferrari with wonderful mechanical grip and good traction from low speeds. However, corners of medium pace and lengthy turns, comparable to 5 or the double 13-14, in addition to the lengthy and quick nook 9, are extra suited to McLaren’s preferences.
Abu Dhabi can also be notable for its lengthy straights, which is able to penalize much less highly effective energy models nearing the tip of their lifespan. General, the observe requires a medium aerodynamic load setup, permitting McLaren to reintroduce their new and distinctive rear wing, which was first launched through the Brazilian Grand Prix. Ferrari, then again, is counting on the brand new ground that confirmed optimistic leads to Qatar on Leclerc’s automotive, producing nice curiosity to see if the Scuderia can handle the logistical and monetary problem of bringing a second model of this ground to Carlos Sainz’s automotive.
The design of the circuit would be the place to begin, however the 2024 Components 1 season has taught us that tires, asphalt, and environmental circumstances could make a fair larger distinction. On this regard, Ferrari celebrates the return of the softer Pirelli tire compounds, C3, C4, and C5, that are the alternative of the more durable compounds utilized in Qatar, which Ferrari struggled with. The asphalt right here has higher grip and, above all, extra abrasiveness in comparison with Lusail’s, rushing up tire hysteresis. In different phrases, the tires warmth up sooner because of the higher micro-deformations in touch with the bottom, a course of that generates warmth. That is a facet that, on paper, mitigates Ferrari’s difficulties in making ready the tires for a flying lap.
In Abu Dhabi, qualifying and the race are held at night time, however the observe temperatures ought to nonetheless exceed 30°C, a full 10°C increased than these recorded in Qatar. The window of operation for the automobiles shifts towards increased temperatures, a change that additionally favors Ferrari. Moreover, as already occurred in Lusail, the primary and third free follow periods happen earlier than sundown, with a subsequent cooling of the observe for qualifying and the race. In Qatar, the ground-effect Components 1 automobiles already confirmed excessive sensitivity to this issue, with observe evolution tending to shift the steadiness towards the rear. In Abu Dhabi, the anticipated temperature drop is as a lot as 10°C, greater than double that skilled within the final race, presenting an extra problem find the right setup.
Each groups want an ideal execution of the weekend to be topped champions, beginning with the administration of qualifying. In 2023, the gaps had been extraordinarily slender, with 15 drivers inside four-tenths of a second, resulting in the stunning elimination of Carlos Sainz in Q1. Managing visitors is essential, because the tight third sector tends to create lengthy queues, risking cooling down the tires of these trying a flying lap, a situation just like Monaco.
The race tempo, then again, is proscribed each by entrance tire put on and rear tire degradation, not significantly favoring Ferrari or McLaren. “Flip 9 is lengthy and high-speed, so it is going to be essential for entrance tire administration,” defined Simone Berra, Pirelli’s Chief Engineer, simply hours earlier than the beginning in 2023. “The important thing will probably be managing overheating within the third sector, together with the exit from the 6-7 chicane that separates the 2 straights. Rear tire temperatures, if saved underneath management, could make the distinction in sustaining efficiency.”
The Qatar race was freed from the scary graining points, which, nevertheless, had been seen on the proper entrance tire within the final race in Abu Dhabi. This situation is troubling McLaren, as Lando Norris lately commented: “On some tracks which are extra rear-limited, these issues don’t seem, however we’ve all the time been one of many worst groups for entrance tire graining. When we have now it, we’re not the quickest, however as quickly because it goes away, the state of affairs adjustments.” One other variable is the variety of pit stops, with simulations predicting related race occasions between one or two stops. The technique might be decided by visitors or by somebody desperately attempting to combine up plans to strive one thing completely different.
The end result of the world championship battle between Ferrari and McLaren will even rely on the third events. Max Verstappen and Pink Bull stand out, with the potential to be aggressive, particularly on a flying lap and firstly, offered they will repeat the troublesome job of hitting the right window for the RB20’s efficiency. Mercedes, in the meantime, begins barely behind after struggling in Qatar. The Silver Arrows face increased temperatures and a vital third sector for the rear tires, features that don’t assist the W15. Nevertheless, the peerlessly levelled asphalt will permit the automotive to work in a low and stiff configuration, which fits Mercedes effectively.
The willpower of the midfield groups shouldn’t be underestimated both, with Alpine, Haas, and Racing Bulls engaged in a fierce battle for sixth place within the constructors’ standings. As with Ferrari, the warmth and the observe breathe new life right into a Haas that struggled within the Qatar corners, however the absence of bumps and undulations will assist Alpine as soon as once more decrease its trip top, highlighting the strengths of the automotive. All of the elements for an thrilling present are there, however regardless of the result, the Abu Dhabi race will probably be a historic verdict.
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